Model the fleet before you build it
Pick your hulls, assign captains, set the flight window and the uptime you will actually keep, and the simulator returns monthly $DONUT burned, projected RWA dividend fragments, and $LONG accrual. Swap a Harvester for a Dreadnought and watch fuel consumption outrun the fleet bonus at low expedition counts. Every figure it produces is a simulation output from the current design numbers — not a forecast, not a return, not a promise — and those numbers will move as the concept is balanced.
What the model does
- Runs in expected-value mode: probabilities are applied as fractions of expected cargo, never rolled.
- Returns the same docket for the same inputs, every time, on any machine.
- Prices in-game values in USD using fixed reference prices, purely so fuel and return can be compared.
- Shows its constants on the Assumptions docket beneath the results, so any figure can be traced back.
What it does not do
- Read any live price, order book, or on-chain balance. Nothing on this page is a market quote.
- Introduce randomness, variance draws, or a seed. The dispersion band is derived from fleet-weighted volatility, not sampled.
- Model the protocol as a whole. Output is one commander's fleet, not aggregate supply behaviour or anyone else's flying.
- Forecast anything. It reports what the current design numbers imply, and those numbers are still being balanced.
Control Deck
Form DS-70 · Fleet ProvisioningFiled Fleets
- Starter Haul4 hulls · 1 lines
Four Harvesters in the index. Cheapest fuel bill on the board and nothing to think about.
- Yield Farmer9 hulls · 3 lines
Harvesters lifted by one Flagship, with a Cruiser working the whipsaw for $LONG.
- Void Runner8 hulls · 2 lines
Cruisers in the MSTR Void behind a Bear. Highest dispersion in the game.
- Whale Flagship18 hulls · 3 lines
Two Flagships and sixteen lifted hulls. Enormous fuel bill, every aura slot filled.
Strip Board — Fleet Manifest
3 lines- 01hull
- 02hull
- 03hull
Every hull burns its own fuel on every launch. Count is the whole fuel bill.
Each Wall Street Dreadnought lifts 8 other hulls by +20%. Empty slots are wasted fuel; a line bigger than the slots left for it is lifted only in part.
Expedition Deck
Flies the calendar month. Most launches land after the bell, where pirate risk runs 1.35× and the rare-part table pays 3×. More tickets, more losses.
A month that closes green about half the time. The neutral assumption, and the one the default docket uses. Green-close frequency is a design assumption about an assumed month, not a prediction about a real one.
The share of the theoretical launch ceiling a human actually hits — refits are not automatic, and hulls sit idle while you sleep. Crewing the Quant AI Pilot overrides this floor for the lines it commands.
Sessions in the month where NVDA closes +3% or better. Those sessions arm Hyper-Boost, which doubles fragments and $LONG for hulls working NVDA Sector — and only NVDA Sector. Lines in the other three regions ignore this control entirely.
Expedition Docket — One Modelled Month
v0.1 — DRAFT · REV 120.00% of the circulating float, sent to the dead address and never recovered.
13,868 $DONUT across 445 launches.
Modelled stock-fragment value from expeditions that came home.
Modelled at $14.06 on the reference price.
2 crafted from rare parts, 1 carried by flagships. The long.xyz redemption is an intended integration only.
Expeditions lost to pirates. A lost hull still returns salvage, never the full cargo.
Every $1.00 of fuel returned $1.07 of modelled value.
The dividend claim is modelled at parity — it assumes the rest of the field flies roughly like you do, so the 20% pool returns your own share. A real pool would not be that polite.
Fixed burn rate — not a fleet result
The rate at which every launch in the game eats supply. It reads 70% for any fleet, any window, any tape — the split is a rule, not an output. What your fleet changes is the size of the tank it is applied to, printed to the right.
Fuel split — every launch, no exceptions
Line ledger
| Class | Sector | Launches | Failed | Fuel $DONUT | Fragments | $LONG | Aura |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DS-H1× 6 | SEC-04 | 234 | 24 | 4,416 | $11.48 | 0 | Aura |
| DS-C2× 2 | SEC-02 | 198 | 69 | 7,463 | $2.36 | 1,632 | Aura |
| DS-D3× 1 | SEC-04 | 13 | 1 | 1,989 | $2.09 | 126 | — |
FIG. 3.2Per-line modelled output, round-the-clock window, 55% uptime, flat tape
$1.54 to $2.97
Fleet-weighted volatility spreads the net position by 31.8% either side. This is a modelled dispersion from the sectors you chose — not a confidence interval, not a probability, and not a floor. A fleet parked in MSTR Void carries a far wider band than one parked in SPY Galaxy, and that is the whole point of the number.
Flight notices
- Notice81% of round-the-clock launches land after the bell, where pirate risk is 1.35× and rare-part drops are 3×.
Every figure above is a simulation output computed from the current design assumptions of an unbuilt game — recapture 1.07× included. They are not forecasts, not returns, and not a promise that any of this will exist. The assumptions move as the model is balanced, and the docket moves with them.
Twelve-Month Burn Projection
FIG. 3.1Cumulative $DONUT burned across 12 modelled months. The circulating float decrements every month and pulls the supply index down with it, so later months burn slightly less: month one burns 9.7K, month twelve 9.7K — a fraction lower. Simulation output on current design assumptions, not a forecast.
Burn Receipt
Donut Strategy
Expedition Docket
REV 12 · Fuel Ledger
Simulation output. No transaction has been made and no chain has been chosen.
Assumptions on the Docket
The model runs in expected-value mode with no randomness in it, so the same fleet under the same deck always prints the same docket — and every figure above traces back to one of these numbers.
These are design assumptions for an unbuilt game, not market data. They are being balanced and they will change.
How the model works
Ten steps run in order on every keystroke, and there is nothing hidden between them. Read down this list and you have read the whole engine: each step names the quantity it produces and what it multiplies to get there.
- 01F1
Supply index
The circulating float is divided by the 350,000,000 $DONUT opening float and clamped between 0.05 and 1. Every fuel price in the run is multiplied by that index, so as supply is eaten the same expedition costs fewer tokens — and the burn per launch falls with it.
- 02F2
Fuel per launch
One hull's launch cost is its base tank, raised by the destination's volatility against that hull's surcharge coefficient, adjusted by the captain's fuel multiplier, then scaled by the supply index. The Bull's discount is weighted by how often the tape is assumed to close green, because it only applies on green sessions.
- 03F3
The fixed split
Every unit of fuel is divided on one unchanging schedule: 70% to the dead address at 0x0000…dEaD, 20% into the dividend pool, 10% to the treasury. The split is not a slider and no input on this page moves it.
- 04F4
Pirate risk
Failure probability is the region's volatility times a coefficient of 0.38, times the captain's defense factor, times 1.35× if the launch lands after the bell. An after-hours launch is then held to a floor of 12% — a raid is never cheap, however calm the sector or however well the captain defends — and every launch is finally clamped at 49%. No fleet is ever modelled as certain to be lost.
- 05F5
Salvage and survival
A lost expedition is not a zero. It returns 20% of its cargo as salvage, so the surviving fraction is one minus the non-salvaged share of the failure probability. That factor multiplies every reward in the line — it is applied once, to expected cargo, not rolled per launch.
- 06F6
Bonuses
The captain's reward bonus is weighted by green-close frequency, and Flagship Aura adds a flat lift to hulls covered by a Dreadnought. Each flagship covers 8 other hulls; the slots are handed to the highest-value lines first, and unfilled slots simply pay nothing. A line larger than the slots left for it is covered in part, and its lift is pro-rated to the share of its hulls that a Dreadnought actually reached.
- 07F7
Reward per launch
Base fragment value and $LONG base are multiplied by the region's yield multiplier, the bonus factor, and the survival factor. Hyper-Boost arms only in NVDA Sector, only on sessions you assert closed +3% or better, and only across the share of the month those sessions represent.
- 08F8
Launches per month
Cycle time is flight hours plus refit hours. Session-only flying is capped by the 09:30–16:00 ET window across 21 trading days and then multiplied by a fixed session uptime factor of 0.90: the commander uptime slider does not apply to that window, because the window itself is already the constraint. Round-the-clock flying instead runs against 30 calendar days at your uptime. A Quant AI Pilot substitutes its own automation uptime when that is higher than yours, and flies the session window whole in place of the 0.90 factor.
- 09F9
Parts and tickets
Engine Parts accrue on surviving launches at the hull's drop chance, tripled on after-hours raids, with Plasma Cannons at half that rate. 8 engine parts and 4 plasma cannons craft one Launchpad Ticket, and Dreadnoughts contribute guaranteed tickets on top, under a monthly cap.
- 10F10
Recapture
The final ratio is modelled return over fuel spend in USD terms, using reference prices only to make the two sides comparable. The dividend claim is modelled at parity — it assumes the rest of the field flies roughly as you do, so the pool returns your own contribution. If everyone else flies less, it returns more; if they fly more, less.
The twelve-month projection re-runs all ten steps once per month, decrementing the float by what the previous month burned, which is why the curve bends: a smaller float lowers the supply index, which lowers fuel per launch, which lowers the burn. Nothing in the loop compounds a return.
What this page is not
The simulator is the most persuasive thing on this site, which is exactly why it carries the longest warning. Read it before you read any figure above as a number you could earn.
Disclaimer
Donut Strategy: Galactic Stock Fleet is a game concept in development. Nothing described here is live, deployed, audited, or funded, and there is no team, backer, listing, or user base being claimed. Every number on this page — yields, burn totals, dividend fragments, $LONG accrual — is output from a simulator running on design assumptions we are still changing. Those are simulation results, not forecasts, and not returns anyone should expect. The long.xyz integration is an intended one; no agreement is in place. Nothing here is investment advice. Tokenized equities are regulated financial instruments and the rules around them differ by country, so if you are thinking about real exposure, talk to someone licensed where you live.